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↑↓move ↵open escclose Players, teams and this week's games · type a position like "rb" for the list

Players, teams and this week's games. Type a position like "rb" for the list.

PUBLISHED EVIDENCE · 2026

Track record

Every call we published, scored after the game. Nothing is edited after kickoff; corrections are dated notes next to the original.

Every call we published, scored after the game. Nothing edited after kickoff.

Scored Sun Oct 11 · 5:36 PM ET · artifact verified

SEASON RECORD

SEASON

46 of 74 · 62%

Every published call, coin flips included. A lean counts as a call.

coin flips counted

AGAINST THE MARKET

VS THE MARKET

−2 games

Same 74 games: the closing line's favourite went 48 of 74. Market line, research only.

Market line, research only.

BRIER SCORE

BRIER

0.232

Lower is better. A coin flip scores 0.250; a perfect forecaster 0.

coin flip is 0.250

NOT COUNTED

0

Nothing to leave out yet.

nothing to leave out

This view: week 5 and the calls still to be scored. Every week: week pages · CSV

CALIBRATION, WHAT WE SAID VS WHAT HAPPENED

n = 74
WE SAID GAMES HIT HOW OFTEN THAT SIDE WON
50 to 55% 23 61%
55 to 60% 21 57%
60 to 65% 20 55%
65 to 70% 7 86%
70% and up 3 100%

Grey tick: the confidence we published. Bar: how often that side won. A bar past the tick means we were underconfident; short of it, overconfident. Buckets under 3 games are shown in grey and prove nothing yet.

CALIBRATION, SAID VS HAPPENED

50 to 55% 23 · 61%
55 to 60% 21 · 57%
60 to 65% 20 · 55%
65 to 70% 7 · 86%
70% and up 3 · 100%

Tick: what we said. Bar: how often that side won. Grey: under 3 games.

SEASON, WEEK BY WEEK

1 10 · 6 2 10 · 6 3 9 · 7 4 10 · 6 5 7 · 3 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10 · 11 · 12 · 13 · 14 · 15 · 16 · 17 · 18 ·
Hit · Miss per week Brier 0.232 after Week 5 Best week Week 4, 63%

Each tile is one week: hits and misses on top, and the tile fills once every game that week is scored. The season Brier and the calibration table update the same night.

US AGAINST THE ALTERNATIVES, SAME 74 GAMES

FORECASTERRECORDBRIERSKILL VS COIN FLIP
Sporacle 46 of 74 0.232 7.1%
Closing line 48 of 74 - -
Favourite, always - - -
Home team, always 41 of 74 0.250 0.0%
Coin flip · 0.250 0.0%

Skill: how much better than a coin flip the Brier is, in percent. Closing line: the favourite in the market's closing spread. Closing line from the market, shown for research. Not our number and not advice. Beating it over a season is the only claim worth making.

US AGAINST THE ALTERNATIVES

Sporacle 46 of 74 · 0.232
Closing line -
Favourite, always -
Home, always 41 of 74 · 0.250

Bar: skill vs a coin flip. Closing line: the market's closing favourite. Closing line from the market, shown for research. Not our number and not advice.

THE MARGIN RANGE, TESTED

THE MARGIN RANGE, TESTED · 42 OF 44 INSIDE

42 of 44 inside · 95%

We say 9 in 10 finals land inside the bar. Each row is a Week 5 final placed on its own range: inside is green, outside is red, the tick is our median.

TB at DAL in
PHI at JAX in
CHI at GB in
CIN at MIA in
CLE at NYJ in
HOU at TEN in
IND at PIT in
LV at NE in
MIN at NO in
NYG at WAS in

Scale: margin from the side we called, −30 to +35.

Grey: our range. Tick: our median. Dot: the final, green inside, red outside. Scale −30 to +35.

PLAYER PROJECTIONS, SCORED AFTER WEEK 4

1838 projections published · 1399 scored
QB 138 scored MAE 6.0
Inside floor to ceiling 55%
Top projected -
Rank correlation 0.36
RB 354 scored MAE 4.1
Inside floor to ceiling 51%
Top projected -
Rank correlation 0.71
WR 554 scored MAE 4.0
Inside floor to ceiling 50%
Top projected -
Rank correlation 0.58
TE 353 scored MAE 3.2
Inside floor to ceiling 45%
Top projected -
Rank correlation 0.55

BIGGEST MISSES

CAR Tetairoa McMillan WR26 8.0 → 38.2
LA Davante Adams WR33 6.6 → 35.5
SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR4 12.8 → 38.0
CAR J.Coker WR58 5.9 → 29.8

BEST CALLS

Not published yet.

MAE: mean absolute error in fantasy points, half PPR. Inside: the share of players whose actual landed between the floor and ceiling we published, our 20th and 80th percentiles, so about 60 in 100 should; within 10 of that is green, outside it amber. Rank correlation: each week's Spearman between our order and the finish, averaged over the weeks; 1 is perfect. Every number is scored against the official box score once it is published.

PLAYER PROJECTIONS, WEEK 4

QB MAE 6.0 55% inside -
RB MAE 4.1 51% inside -
WR MAE 4.0 50% inside -
TE MAE 3.2 45% inside -

MAE in fantasy points, half PPR. Inside: share of players whose actual landed in our floor to ceiling, the 20th to 80th percentile; about 60 in 100 should.

WEEKGAMEOUR CALL, AT KICKOFFRESULTVERDICTMARGIN ERRORBRIER
5 TB Buccaneers at DAL Cowboys DAL 52% DAL by 1 TB 24 · DAL 16 Miss 52% -9 0.270
5 PHI Eagles at JAX Jaguars JAX 62% JAX by 5 PHI 17 · JAX 19 Hit 62% -3 0.143
5 CHI Bears at GB Packers GB 56% GB by 2 CHI 7 · GB 31 Hit 56% +22 0.196
5 CIN Bengals at MIA Dolphins CIN 60% CIN by 3 CIN 31 · MIA 24 Hit 60% +4 0.162
5 CLE Browns at NYJ Jets CLE 55% CLE by 1 CLE 12 · NYJ 17 Miss 55% -6 0.306
5 HOU Texans at TEN Titans HOU 52% HOU by 1 HOU 26 · TEN 3 Hit 52% +22 0.227
5 IND Colts at PIT Steelers PIT 54% PIT by 1 IND 22 · PIT 34 Hit 54% +11 0.209
5 LV Raiders at NE Patriots NE 54% NE by 2 LV 17 · NE 45 Hit 54% +27 0.210
5 MIN Vikings at NO Saints MIN 51% MIN by 1 MIN 23 · NO 13 Hit 51% +10 0.236
5 NYG Giants at WAS Commanders WAS 63% WAS by 5 NYG 27 · WAS 27 Miss 63% -5 0.392
5 DEN Broncos at LAC Chargers LAC 51% tie Sun 4:05 PM Pending · ·
5 DET Lions at ARI Cardinals DET 58% DET by 3 Sun 4:25 PM Pending · ·
5 SF 49ers at SEA Seahawks SEA 57% SEA by 3 Sun 4:25 PM Pending · ·
5 BAL Ravens at ATL Falcons BAL 56% BAL by 3 Sun 8:20 PM Pending · ·
5 BUF Bills at LA Rams BUF 57% BUF by 3 Mon 8:15 PM Pending · ·

15 of 79 calls on this page · export CSV · the published artifact

Margin error: final margin minus our median, from the side we called. Brier per game: (confidence − outcome)². ✎ is a dated correction; the call itself is never edited.

TB at DAL DAL 52% · by 1 Miss
TB 24 · DAL 16 err -9 Brier 0.270
PHI at JAX JAX 62% · by 5 Hit
PHI 17 · JAX 19 err -3 Brier 0.143
CHI at GB GB 56% · by 2 Hit
CHI 7 · GB 31 err +22 Brier 0.196
CIN at MIA CIN 60% · by 3 Hit
CIN 31 · MIA 24 err +4 Brier 0.162
CLE at NYJ CLE 55% · by 1 Miss
CLE 12 · NYJ 17 err -6 Brier 0.306
HOU at TEN HOU 52% · by 1 Hit
HOU 26 · TEN 3 err +22 Brier 0.227
IND at PIT PIT 54% · by 1 Hit
IND 22 · PIT 34 err +11 Brier 0.209
LV at NE NE 54% · by 2 Hit
LV 17 · NE 45 err +27 Brier 0.210
MIN at NO MIN 51% · by 1 Hit
MIN 23 · NO 13 err +10 Brier 0.236
NYG at WAS WAS 63% · by 5 Miss
NYG 27 · WAS 27 err -5 Brier 0.392
DEN at LAC LAC 51% · tie Pending
Sun 4:05 PM err · Brier ·
DET at ARI DET 58% · by 3 Pending
Sun 4:25 PM err · Brier ·
SF at SEA SEA 57% · by 3 Pending
Sun 4:25 PM err · Brier ·
BAL at ATL BAL 56% · by 3 Pending
Sun 8:20 PM err · Brier ·
BUF at LA BUF 57% · by 3 Pending
Mon 8:15 PM err · Brier ·

15 of 79 calls on this page · export CSV

Err: final margin minus our median. Brier: (confidence − outcome)². Calls are never edited after kickoff.

HOW THIS PAGE WORKS

A published call is never edited or deleted after kickoff. A correction is a dated note next to the original. Every row keeps its Hit, Miss, Pending or Not counted so you can check us; the Brier score checks both the outcome and the confidence we stated. A coin flip with the right lean counts as a hit and as a miss the same way; a tie is a Miss, because we never call one.

Scored Sun Oct 11 · 5:36 PM ET · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6

Scored Sun Oct 11 · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6