PUBLISHED EVIDENCE · 2026

Week 1

WEEKGAMEOUR CALL, AT KICKOFFRESULTVERDICTMARGIN ERRORBRIER

1 NE Patriots at SEA Seahawks SEA 59% SEA by 3 NE 10 · SEA 13 Hit 59% +0 0.166

1 SF 49ers at LA Rams LA 66% LA by 4 SF 27 · LA 7 Miss 66% -24 0.441

1 ATL Falcons at PIT Steelers PIT 53% PIT by 1 ATL 13 · PIT 20 Hit 53% +6 0.222

1 BAL Ravens at IND Colts BAL 54% BAL by 2 BAL 41 · IND 23 Hit 54% +16 0.208

1 BUF Bills at HOU Texans BUF 55% BUF by 1 BUF 36 · HOU 31 Hit 55% +4 0.201

1 CHI Bears at CAR Panthers CHI 59% CHI by 3 CHI 59 · CAR 37 Hit 59% +19 0.171

1 CLE Browns at JAX Jaguars JAX 67% JAX by 8 CLE 10 · JAX 34 Hit 67% +16 0.106

1 NO Saints at DET Lions DET 57% DET by 3 NO 30 · DET 31 Hit 57% -2 0.181

1 NYJ Jets at TEN Titans TEN 54% TEN by 1 NYJ 23 · TEN 10 Miss 54% -14 0.296

1 TB Buccaneers at CIN Bengals CIN 57% CIN by 3 TB 27 · CIN 33 Hit 57% +3 0.183

1 ARI Cardinals at LAC Chargers LAC 58% LAC by 2 ARI 26 · LAC 14 Miss 58% -14 0.331

1 GB Packers at MIN Vikings MIN 56% MIN by 2 GB 22 · MIN 39 Hit 56% +15 0.192

1 MIA Dolphins at LV Raiders MIA 61% MIA by 5 MIA 13 · LV 27 Miss 61% -19 0.378

1 WAS Commanders at PHI Eagles PHI 65% PHI by 6 WAS 22 · PHI 24 Hit 65% -4 0.123

1 DAL Cowboys at NYG Giants DAL 55% DAL by 2 DAL 20 · NYG 28 Miss 55% -10 0.308

1 DEN Broncos at KC Chiefs DEN 52% DEN by 1 DEN 10 · KC 31 Miss 52% -22 0.270

16 calls · export CSV · the published artifact

Margin error: final margin minus our median, from the side we called. Brier per game: (confidence − outcome)². ✎ is a dated correction; the call itself is never edited.

NE at SEA SEA 59% · by 3 Hit

NE 10 · SEA 13 err +0 Brier 0.166

SF at LA LA 66% · by 4 Miss

SF 27 · LA 7 err -24 Brier 0.441

ATL at PIT PIT 53% · by 1 Hit

ATL 13 · PIT 20 err +6 Brier 0.222

BAL at IND BAL 54% · by 2 Hit

BAL 41 · IND 23 err +16 Brier 0.208

BUF at HOU BUF 55% · by 1 Hit

BUF 36 · HOU 31 err +4 Brier 0.201

CHI at CAR CHI 59% · by 3 Hit

CHI 59 · CAR 37 err +19 Brier 0.171

CLE at JAX JAX 67% · by 8 Hit

CLE 10 · JAX 34 err +16 Brier 0.106

NO at DET DET 57% · by 3 Hit

NO 30 · DET 31 err -2 Brier 0.181

NYJ at TEN TEN 54% · by 1 Miss

NYJ 23 · TEN 10 err -14 Brier 0.296

TB at CIN CIN 57% · by 3 Hit

TB 27 · CIN 33 err +3 Brier 0.183

ARI at LAC LAC 58% · by 2 Miss

ARI 26 · LAC 14 err -14 Brier 0.331

GB at MIN MIN 56% · by 2 Hit

GB 22 · MIN 39 err +15 Brier 0.192

MIA at LV MIA 61% · by 5 Miss

MIA 13 · LV 27 err -19 Brier 0.378

WAS at PHI PHI 65% · by 6 Hit

WAS 22 · PHI 24 err -4 Brier 0.123

DAL at NYG DAL 55% · by 2 Miss

DAL 20 · NYG 28 err -10 Brier 0.308

DEN at KC DEN 52% · by 1 Miss

DEN 10 · KC 31 err -22 Brier 0.270

16 calls · export CSV

Err: final margin minus our median. Brier: (confidence − outcome)². Calls are never edited after kickoff.

HOW THIS PAGE WORKS

A published call is never edited or deleted after kickoff. A correction is a dated note next to the original. Every row keeps its Hit, Miss, Pending or Not counted so you can check us; the Brier score checks both the outcome and the confidence we stated. A coin flip with the right lean counts as a hit and as a miss the same way; a tie is a Miss, because we never call one.

Scored Sun Oct 11 · 5:36 PM ET · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6

Scored Sun Oct 11 · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6