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"biggest_misses": [ { "player_id": "00-0040124", "name": "Tetairoa McMillan", "week": 4, "projected": 7.97, "actual": 38.2 }, { "player_id": "00-0031381", "name": "Davante Adams", "week": 2, "projected": 6.58, "actual": 35.5 }, { "player_id": "00-0038543", "name": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba", "week": 2, "projected": 12.82, "actual": 38 }, { "player_id": "00-0039491", "name": "J.Coker", "week": 1, "projected": 5.9, "actual": 29.8 }, { "player_id": "00-0038124", "name": "C.Watson", "week": 1, "projected": 6.64, "actual": 29.7 }, { "player_id": "00-0035685", "name": "D.Montgomery", "week": 1, "projected": 4.99, "actual": 27.4 }, { "player_id": "00-0034857", "name": "J.Allen", "week": 2, "projected": 18.5, "actual": 40.82 }, { "player_id": "00-0038104", "name": "Tyquan Thornton", "week": 4, "projected": 3.45, "actual": 25.6 }, { "player_id": "00-0036358", "name": "CeeDee Lamb", "week": 2, "projected": 9.35, "actual": 31.3 }, { "player_id": "00-0039139", "name": "Jahmyr Gibbs", "week": 3, "projected": 16.06, "actual": 37.9 }, { "player_id": "00-0032764", "name": "D.Henry", "week": 1, "projected": 13, "actual": 34.8 }, { "player_id": "00-0036358", "name": "CeeDee Lamb", "week": 4, "projected": 11.06, "actual": 32.8 }, { "player_id": "00-0036275", "name": "D.Swift", "week": 1, "projected": 10.51, "actual": 31.9 }, { "player_id": "00-0034869", "name": "Sam Darnold", "week": 3, "projected": 6.52, "actual": 27.66 }, { "player_id": "00-0037746", "name": "Brian Robinson", "week": 4, "projected": 4.22, "actual": 25.2 } ], "pending": { "published": 0, "weeks": [] }, "did_not_play": { "published": 439, "ranked_top_24": 23, "mean_projection_of_those": 11.7, "examples": [ { "player_id": "00-0034855", "name": "Baker Mayfield", "position": "QB", "week": 4, "rank_pos": 5, "projected": 18.22 }, { "player_id": "00-0039918", "name": "Caleb Williams", "position": "QB", "week": 4, "rank_pos": 8, "projected": 17.91 }, { "player_id": "00-0039918", "name": "Caleb Williams", "position": "QB", "week": 3, "rank_pos": 6, "projected": 17.3 }, { "player_id": "00-0036212", "name": "T.Tagovailoa", "position": "QB", "week": 2, "rank_pos": 11, "projected": 16.74 }, { "player_id": "00-0036212", "name": "T.Tagovailoa", "position": "QB", "week": 1, "rank_pos": 21, "projected": 16.18 }, { "player_id": "00-0032950", "name": "Carson Wentz", "position": "QB", "week": 3, "rank_pos": 20, "projected": 14.84 }, { "player_id": "00-0039075", "name": "Puka Nacua", "position": "WR", "week": 3, "rank_pos": 2, "projected": 14.47 }, { "player_id": "00-0039075", "name": "Puka Nacua", "position": "WR", "week": 2, "rank_pos": 1, "projected": 14.41 }, { "player_id": "00-0032950", "name": "Carson Wentz", "position": "QB", "week": 4, "rank_pos": 24, "projected": 14.37 }, { "player_id": "00-0041512", "name": "Jadarian Price", "position": "RB", "week": 4, "rank_pos": 17, "projected": 11.96 } ] } }, "corrections": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "text": "Player grades now use the last projection published before each player's own game started, or the earliest one when none came before it, the rule game grades already used, instead of the first projection published that week. Every record published before stays as it was. Measured on run 2026-05-inactives-cba8348a, old figures to new: QB MAE 6.2306 to 6.0356, coverage 0.5507 to 0.5507, rank correlation 0.3557 to 0.3582, 138 to 138 graded; RB MAE 4.2304 to 4.1378, coverage 0.5014 to 0.5056, rank correlation 0.6915 to 0.7064, 353 to 354 graded; TE MAE 3.2197 to 3.2059, coverage 0.4379 to 0.4476, rank correlation 0.5635 to 0.551, 354 to 353 graded; WR MAE 4.0588 to 4.035, coverage 0.5018 to 0.5036, rank correlation 0.562 to 0.5763, 554 to 554 graded." } ] }