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↑↓move ↵open escclose Players, teams and this week's games · type a position like "rb" for the list

Players, teams and this week's games. Type a position like "rb" for the list.

PUBLISHED EVIDENCE · 2026

Week 5

WEEKGAMEOUR CALL, AT KICKOFFRESULTVERDICTMARGIN ERRORBRIER
5 TB Buccaneers at DAL Cowboys DAL 52% DAL by 1 TB 24 · DAL 16 Miss 52% -9 0.270
5 PHI Eagles at JAX Jaguars JAX 62% JAX by 5 PHI 17 · JAX 19 Hit 62% -3 0.143
5 CHI Bears at GB Packers GB 56% GB by 2 CHI 7 · GB 31 Hit 56% +22 0.196
5 CIN Bengals at MIA Dolphins CIN 60% CIN by 3 CIN 31 · MIA 24 Hit 60% +4 0.162
5 CLE Browns at NYJ Jets CLE 55% CLE by 1 CLE 12 · NYJ 17 Miss 55% -6 0.306
5 HOU Texans at TEN Titans HOU 52% HOU by 1 HOU 26 · TEN 3 Hit 52% +22 0.227
5 IND Colts at PIT Steelers PIT 54% PIT by 1 IND 22 · PIT 34 Hit 54% +11 0.209
5 LV Raiders at NE Patriots NE 54% NE by 2 LV 17 · NE 45 Hit 54% +27 0.210
5 MIN Vikings at NO Saints MIN 51% MIN by 1 MIN 23 · NO 13 Hit 51% +10 0.236
5 NYG Giants at WAS Commanders WAS 63% WAS by 5 NYG 27 · WAS 27 Miss 63% -5 0.392
5 DEN Broncos at LAC Chargers LAC 51% tie Sun 4:05 PM Pending · ·
5 DET Lions at ARI Cardinals DET 58% DET by 3 Sun 4:25 PM Pending · ·
5 SF 49ers at SEA Seahawks SEA 57% SEA by 3 Sun 4:25 PM Pending · ·
5 BAL Ravens at ATL Falcons BAL 56% BAL by 3 Sun 8:20 PM Pending · ·
5 BUF Bills at LA Rams BUF 57% BUF by 3 Mon 8:15 PM Pending · ·

15 calls · export CSV · the published artifact

Margin error: final margin minus our median, from the side we called. Brier per game: (confidence − outcome)². ✎ is a dated correction; the call itself is never edited.

TB at DAL DAL 52% · by 1 Miss
TB 24 · DAL 16 err -9 Brier 0.270
PHI at JAX JAX 62% · by 5 Hit
PHI 17 · JAX 19 err -3 Brier 0.143
CHI at GB GB 56% · by 2 Hit
CHI 7 · GB 31 err +22 Brier 0.196
CIN at MIA CIN 60% · by 3 Hit
CIN 31 · MIA 24 err +4 Brier 0.162
CLE at NYJ CLE 55% · by 1 Miss
CLE 12 · NYJ 17 err -6 Brier 0.306
HOU at TEN HOU 52% · by 1 Hit
HOU 26 · TEN 3 err +22 Brier 0.227
IND at PIT PIT 54% · by 1 Hit
IND 22 · PIT 34 err +11 Brier 0.209
LV at NE NE 54% · by 2 Hit
LV 17 · NE 45 err +27 Brier 0.210
MIN at NO MIN 51% · by 1 Hit
MIN 23 · NO 13 err +10 Brier 0.236
NYG at WAS WAS 63% · by 5 Miss
NYG 27 · WAS 27 err -5 Brier 0.392
DEN at LAC LAC 51% · tie Pending
Sun 4:05 PM err · Brier ·
DET at ARI DET 58% · by 3 Pending
Sun 4:25 PM err · Brier ·
SF at SEA SEA 57% · by 3 Pending
Sun 4:25 PM err · Brier ·
BAL at ATL BAL 56% · by 3 Pending
Sun 8:20 PM err · Brier ·
BUF at LA BUF 57% · by 3 Pending
Mon 8:15 PM err · Brier ·

15 calls · export CSV

Err: final margin minus our median. Brier: (confidence − outcome)². Calls are never edited after kickoff.

HOW THIS PAGE WORKS

A published call is never edited or deleted after kickoff. A correction is a dated note next to the original. Every row keeps its Hit, Miss, Pending or Not counted so you can check us; the Brier score checks both the outcome and the confidence we stated. A coin flip with the right lean counts as a hit and as a miss the same way; a tie is a Miss, because we never call one.

Scored Sun Oct 11 · 5:36 PM ET · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6

Scored Sun Oct 11 · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6