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↑↓move ↵open escclose Players, teams and this week's games · type a position like "rb" for the list

Players, teams and this week's games. Type a position like "rb" for the list.

PUBLISHED EVIDENCE · 2026

Week 3

WEEKGAMEOUR CALL, AT KICKOFFRESULTVERDICTMARGIN ERRORBRIER
3 ATL Falcons at GB Packers GB 60% GB by 5 ATL 35 · GB 14 Miss 60% -26 0.363
3 CAR Panthers at CLE Browns CAR 54% CAR by 1 CAR 18 · CLE 21 Miss 54% -4 0.287
3 CIN Bengals at PIT Steelers PIT 54% PIT by 1 CIN 27 · PIT 30 Hit 54% +2 0.208
3 HOU Texans at IND Colts HOU 50% tie HOU 17 · IND 19 Miss 50% -2 0.255
3 KC Chiefs at MIA Dolphins KC 54% KC by 2 KC 24 · MIA 10 Hit 54% +12 0.213
3 LAC Chargers at BUF Bills BUF 65% BUF by 7 LAC 16 · BUF 24 Hit 65% +2 0.119
3 NE Patriots at JAX Jaguars JAX 60% JAX by 4 NE 6 · JAX 35 Hit 60% +25 0.157
3 NYJ Jets at DET Lions DET 71% DET by 9 NYJ 24 · DET 31 Hit 71% -2 0.087
3 SEA Seahawks at WAS Commanders SEA 59% SEA by 4 SEA 31 · WAS 33 Miss 59% -6 0.348
3 TEN Titans at NYG Giants NYG 63% NYG by 6 TEN 7 · NYG 12 Hit 63% -1 0.140
3 ARI Cardinals at SF 49ers SF 67% SF by 7 ARI 30 · SF 36 Hit 67% -1 0.107
3 MIN Vikings at TB Buccaneers TB 51% tie MIN 23 · TB 16 Miss 51% -7 0.260
3 BAL Ravens at DAL Cowboys BAL 62% BAL by 4 BAL 34 · DAL 31 Hit 62% -1 0.143
3 LV Raiders at NO Saints NO 63% NO by 6 LV 35 · NO 27 Miss 63% -14 0.403
3 LA Rams at DEN Broncos DEN 53% DEN by 1 LA 26 · DEN 30 Hit 53% +3 0.220
3 PHI Eagles at CHI Bears PHI 53% PHI by 1 PHI 7 · CHI 27 Miss 53% -21 0.282

16 calls · export CSV · the published artifact

Margin error: final margin minus our median, from the side we called. Brier per game: (confidence − outcome)². ✎ is a dated correction; the call itself is never edited.

ATL at GB GB 60% · by 5 Miss
ATL 35 · GB 14 err -26 Brier 0.363
CAR at CLE CAR 54% · by 1 Miss
CAR 18 · CLE 21 err -4 Brier 0.287
CIN at PIT PIT 54% · by 1 Hit
CIN 27 · PIT 30 err +2 Brier 0.208
HOU at IND HOU 50% · tie Miss
HOU 17 · IND 19 err -2 Brier 0.255
KC at MIA KC 54% · by 2 Hit
KC 24 · MIA 10 err +12 Brier 0.213
LAC at BUF BUF 65% · by 7 Hit
LAC 16 · BUF 24 err +2 Brier 0.119
NE at JAX JAX 60% · by 4 Hit
NE 6 · JAX 35 err +25 Brier 0.157
NYJ at DET DET 71% · by 9 Hit
NYJ 24 · DET 31 err -2 Brier 0.087
SEA at WAS SEA 59% · by 4 Miss
SEA 31 · WAS 33 err -6 Brier 0.348
TEN at NYG NYG 63% · by 6 Hit
TEN 7 · NYG 12 err -1 Brier 0.140
ARI at SF SF 67% · by 7 Hit
ARI 30 · SF 36 err -1 Brier 0.107
MIN at TB TB 51% · tie Miss
MIN 23 · TB 16 err -7 Brier 0.260
BAL at DAL BAL 62% · by 4 Hit
BAL 34 · DAL 31 err -1 Brier 0.143
LV at NO NO 63% · by 6 Miss
LV 35 · NO 27 err -14 Brier 0.403
LA at DEN DEN 53% · by 1 Hit
LA 26 · DEN 30 err +3 Brier 0.220
PHI at CHI PHI 53% · by 1 Miss
PHI 7 · CHI 27 err -21 Brier 0.282

16 calls · export CSV

Err: final margin minus our median. Brier: (confidence − outcome)². Calls are never edited after kickoff.

HOW THIS PAGE WORKS

A published call is never edited or deleted after kickoff. A correction is a dated note next to the original. Every row keeps its Hit, Miss, Pending or Not counted so you can check us; the Brier score checks both the outcome and the confidence we stated. A coin flip with the right lean counts as a hit and as a miss the same way; a tie is a Miss, because we never call one.

Scored Sun Oct 11 · 5:36 PM ET · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6

Scored Sun Oct 11 · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6