PUBLISHED EVIDENCE · 2026

Week 4

WEEKGAMEOUR CALL, AT KICKOFFRESULTVERDICTMARGIN ERRORBRIER

4 PIT Steelers at CLE Browns CLE 57% CLE by 2 PIT 24 · CLE 27 Hit 57% +1 0.187

4 IND Colts at WAS Commanders WAS 55% WAS by 2 IND 30 · WAS 13 Miss 55% -19 0.307

4 ARI Cardinals at NYG Giants ARI 51% tie ARI 24 · NYG 36 Miss 51% -12 0.257

4 DAL Cowboys at HOU Texans DAL 52% DAL by 1 DAL 34 · HOU 30 Hit 52% +3 0.228

4 GB Packers at TB Buccaneers GB 51% tie GB 17 · TB 14 Hit 51% +3 0.244

4 JAX Jaguars at CIN Bengals CIN 59% CIN by 3 JAX 22 · CIN 17 Miss 59% -8 0.349

4 LA Rams at PHI Eagles LA 54% LA by 1 LA 24 · PHI 20 Hit 54% +3 0.214

4 NE Patriots at BUF Bills BUF 63% BUF by 7 NE 29 · BUF 26 Miss 63% -10 0.399

4 NYJ Jets at CHI Bears CHI 70% CHI by 8 NYJ 12 · CHI 23 Hit 70% +3 0.090

4 TEN Titans at BAL Ravens BAL 72% BAL by 10 TEN 18 · BAL 24 Hit 72% -4 0.079

4 MIA Dolphins at MIN Vikings MIN 63% MIN by 4 MIA 10 · MIN 15 Hit 63% +1 0.133

4 DEN Broncos at SF 49ers SF 60% SF by 4 DEN 14 · SF 24 Hit 60% +6 0.160

4 KC Chiefs at LV Raiders KC 57% KC by 3 KC 30 · LV 27 Hit 57% +1 0.189

4 LAC Chargers at SEA Seahawks SEA 61% SEA by 6 LAC 23 · SEA 30 Hit 61% +1 0.152

4 DET Lions at CAR Panthers DET 61% DET by 3 DET 26 · CAR 32 Miss 61% -9 0.368

4 ATL Falcons at NO Saints NO 62% NO by 4 ATL 45 · NO 24 Miss 62% -25 0.382

16 calls · export CSV · the published artifact

Margin error: final margin minus our median, from the side we called. Brier per game: (confidence − outcome)². ✎ is a dated correction; the call itself is never edited.

PIT at CLE CLE 57% · by 2 Hit

PIT 24 · CLE 27 err +1 Brier 0.187

IND at WAS WAS 55% · by 2 Miss

IND 30 · WAS 13 err -19 Brier 0.307

ARI at NYG ARI 51% · tie Miss

ARI 24 · NYG 36 err -12 Brier 0.257

DAL at HOU DAL 52% · by 1 Hit

DAL 34 · HOU 30 err +3 Brier 0.228

GB at TB GB 51% · tie Hit

GB 17 · TB 14 err +3 Brier 0.244

JAX at CIN CIN 59% · by 3 Miss

JAX 22 · CIN 17 err -8 Brier 0.349

LA at PHI LA 54% · by 1 Hit

LA 24 · PHI 20 err +3 Brier 0.214

NE at BUF BUF 63% · by 7 Miss

NE 29 · BUF 26 err -10 Brier 0.399

NYJ at CHI CHI 70% · by 8 Hit

NYJ 12 · CHI 23 err +3 Brier 0.090

TEN at BAL BAL 72% · by 10 Hit

TEN 18 · BAL 24 err -4 Brier 0.079

MIA at MIN MIN 63% · by 4 Hit

MIA 10 · MIN 15 err +1 Brier 0.133

DEN at SF SF 60% · by 4 Hit

DEN 14 · SF 24 err +6 Brier 0.160

KC at LV KC 57% · by 3 Hit

KC 30 · LV 27 err +1 Brier 0.189

LAC at SEA SEA 61% · by 6 Hit

LAC 23 · SEA 30 err +1 Brier 0.152

DET at CAR DET 61% · by 3 Miss

DET 26 · CAR 32 err -9 Brier 0.368

ATL at NO NO 62% · by 4 Miss

ATL 45 · NO 24 err -25 Brier 0.382

16 calls · export CSV

Err: final margin minus our median. Brier: (confidence − outcome)². Calls are never edited after kickoff.

HOW THIS PAGE WORKS

A published call is never edited or deleted after kickoff. A correction is a dated note next to the original. Every row keeps its Hit, Miss, Pending or Not counted so you can check us; the Brier score checks both the outcome and the confidence we stated. A coin flip with the right lean counts as a hit and as a miss the same way; a tie is a Miss, because we never call one.

Scored Sun Oct 11 · 5:36 PM ET · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6

Scored Sun Oct 11 · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6