New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Week 4 2026 forecast

PIT 24 CLE 27 Final Final IND 30 WAS 13 Final Final ARI 24 NYG 36 Final Final DAL 34 HOU 30 Final Final GB 17 TB 14 Final Final JAX 22 CIN 17 Final Final LA 24 PHI 20 Final Final NE 29 BUF 26 Final Final NYJ 12 CHI 23 Final Final TEN 18 BAL 24 Final Final MIA 10 MIN 15 Final Final DEN 14 SF 24 Final Final KC 30 LV 27 Final Final LAC 23 SEA 30 Final Final DET 26 CAR 32 Final Final ATL 45 NO 24 Final Final

Patriots 1-2 29

29 FINAL 26

Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET Sun Oct 4 Highmark Stadium

BUF

Bills 3-0 26

NE 37%

BUF 63%

Miss 63% at kickoff · BUF by 7 63% at kickoff · BUF by 7 Market closed BUF -7 · O/U 49.5

Closing line from the market, shown for research. Not our number and not advice.

Games we called at 60 to 65%: 11 of 20 hit, this one included · Track record →

LINESCORE

Team1234OTT

NE-----29

BUF-----26

WHERE IT LANDED

We said BUF by 7. It finished NE by 3.

NE by 20tieBUF by 29

Bar: 9 in 10 land inside. Tick: our median. Ring: the final margin.

Bar: 9 in 10 runs land inside. Tick: our median. Ring: the final margin.

BIGGEST SWINGS

Not published yet.

TOP PERFORMERS, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

NE D.Maye QB 15.2 → 26.2

BUF J.Allen QB 20.6 → 18.5

BUF J.Cook RB 14.0 → 15.3

Grey bar: what we projected. Tick: what they scored. Fantasy points, half PPR.

Fantasy points, half PPR.

WIN PROBABILITY, FIRST RUN TO FINAL

kickoff 63%

Bills Patriots

PLAYERS

PLAYER POS RANK PROJ ACTUAL

D.Maye QB18 15.2 26.2

R.Stevenson RB22 9.6 14.9

H.Henry TE29 4.1 8.7

T.Henderson RB38 5.7 4.2

T.DeVito QB39 2.7 -

PLAYER POS RANK PROJ ACTUAL

J.Allen QB1 20.6 18.5

J.Cook RB7 14.0 15.3

D.Kincaid TE14 6.7 1.2

D.Knox TE34 3.8 2.3

K.Shakir WR35 6.9 11.7

Proj is what we published before kickoff. Actual is what they scored. Green when they beat the projection.

Week 4 · published Mon Oct 5 · 11:42 PM ET · run 2026-04-reprice-369ce090

Week 4 · published Mon Oct 5 · run 2026-04-reprice-369ce090

Patriots at Bills, Week 4 2026