Week 4 2026 NFL game forecasts

PIT 24 CLE 27 Final Final IND 30 WAS 13 Final Final ARI 24 NYG 36 Final Final DAL 34 HOU 30 Final Final GB 17 TB 14 Final Final JAX 22 CIN 17 Final Final LA 24 PHI 20 Final Final NE 29 BUF 26 Final Final NYJ 12 CHI 23 Final Final TEN 18 BAL 24 Final Final MIA 10 MIN 15 Final Final DEN 14 SF 24 Final Final KC 30 LV 27 Final Final LAC 23 SEA 30 Final Final DET 26 CAR 32 Final Final ATL 45 NO 24 Final Final

Steelers 2-1 24

PIT

24 FINAL 27

Thu Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ET Thu Oct 1 Huntington Bank Field

CLE

Browns 2-1 27

PIT 43%

CLE 57%

Hit 57% at kickoff · CLE by 2 57% at kickoff · CLE by 2 Market closed PIT -2.5 · O/U 38.5

Closing line from the market, shown for research. Not our number and not advice.

Games we called at 55 to 60%: 12 of 21 hit, this one included · Track record →

LINESCORE

Team1234OTT

PIT-----24

CLE-----27

WHERE IT LANDED

We said CLE by 2. It finished CLE by 3.

PIT by 24tieCLE by 25

Bar: 9 in 10 land inside. Tick: our median. Ring: the final margin.

Bar: 9 in 10 runs land inside. Tick: our median. Ring: the final margin.

BIGGEST SWINGS

Not published yet.

TOP PERFORMERS, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

PIT A.Rodgers QB 14.3 → 20.0

CLE Q.Judkins RB 8.0 → 18.6

CLE D.Watson QB 15.9 → 14.9

Grey bar: what we projected. Tick: what they scored. Fantasy points, half PPR.

Fantasy points, half PPR.

WIN PROBABILITY, FIRST RUN TO FINAL

kickoff 57%

Browns Steelers

PLAYERS

PLAYER POS RANK PROJ ACTUAL

J.Warren RB11 13.6 14.1

P.Freiermuth TE22 4.8 9.2

A.Rodgers QB25 14.3 20.0

D.Metcalf WR32 7.3 14.0

D.Washington TE36 3.6 10.2

PLAYER POS RANK PROJ ACTUAL

H.Fannin Jr. TE11 7.6 10.2

D.Watson QB16 15.9 14.9

K.Concepcion WR18 9.1 8.9

Q.Judkins RB29 8.0 18.6

S.Sanders QB35 5.4 -

Proj is what we published before kickoff. Actual is what they scored. Green when they beat the projection.

Week 4 · published Mon Oct 5 · 11:42 PM ET · run 2026-04-reprice-369ce090

Week 4 · published Mon Oct 5 · run 2026-04-reprice-369ce090