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ATL

FALCONS · QB · #9

Michael Penix Jr.

bye Week 11 Healthy

WEEK 5 · vs BAL · Sun 8:20 PM · NBC

16.3

floor 9.2 · ceiling 21.6 · half PPR

QB12Not published yet.
Start or sit
Healthy

WEEK 5 · vs BAL · Sun 8:20 PM · NBC

16.3

9.2 to 21.6

QB12
Not published yet. Start or sit

HOW SURE, WEEK 5

  • Projection 16.3
  • Floor 9.2
  • Ceiling 21.6

Not published yet.

Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentiles of our projection; the projection is the median. The ranking and Start or sit read the same numbers.

THE STAT LINE BEHIND IT

Standard 16.3Half PPR 16.3PPR 16.36-pt pass TD -Quarterbacks do not catch passes, so the formats agree.
CMP -ATT 30.6PASS YDS 238PASS TD 1.6INT 0.3RUSH 1.9 · 4RUSH TD 0.0

Std 16.3 · Half 16.3 · PPR 16.3. Source: Model · engine2-0.2.0.

OUR RECORD ON PENIX JR., PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

  • Week 1: projected 14.3, range 9.1 to 19.3, no stat line
  • Week 2: no projection on record
  • Week 3: projected 14.8, range 8.8 to 19.6, scored 12.0
  • Week 4: projected 14.4, range 8.1 to 19.4, scored 12.7
  • Week 5: projected 16.3, range 9.2 to 21.6, not yet played
  • Week 11: bye
2 of 2 Inside the band −2.2 Mean error none yet Biggest miss Not published yet. 2025

Grey bar: what we projected before kickoff, with the band. Tick: what he scored, from the official box score once it is published.

2 of 2 inside the band · mean error −2.2. Grey: our band. Green: what he scored.

REST OF SEASON

13 games left

  1. 5BAL16.3
  2. 6CHI-
  3. 7SF-
  4. 8@TB-
  5. 9CIN-
  6. 10KC-
  7. 11BYEno game
  8. 12@MIN-
  9. 13DET-
  10. 14@CLE-
  11. 15@WAS-
  12. 16TB-
  13. 17NO-
  14. 18@CAR-

This week's projection, then each week's opponent. Bye dashed.

RANK AT THE POSITION, BY RUN

9/8: QB28, 9/15: QB25, 9/20: not ranked, 9/22: QB21, 9/24: QB22, 9/29: QB25, 10/1: QB25, 10/4: QB23, 10/5: QB23, 10/6: QB13, 10/8: QB12, 10/11: QB12

One point per day with a run on file: its newest, none after his kickoff. Lower is better.

AROUND HIM AT QB, WEEK 5

  1. QB10D.WatsonCLE16.5
  2. QB11D.MayeNE16.3
  3. QB12M.Penix Jr.ATL16.3
  4. QB13C.StroudHOU16.2
  5. QB14B.NixDEN16.2
Full QB rankings

CONTEXT

DEPTH CHART
QB1 · behind him T.Tagovailoa
TEAM
Falcons · rating −2.7, 24th
LAST WEEK
at NO · 12.7 pts

Week 5 · published Sun Oct 11 · 5:36 PM ET · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6 · scored weekly against the official box score