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JAX

JAGUARS · QB · #16

Trevor Lawrence

bye Week 7 Healthy

WEEK 5 · vs PHI · Sun 9:30 AM · NFL Net

18.0

floor 11.5 · ceiling 24.5 · half PPR

QB2Not published yet.
Start or sit
Healthy

WEEK 5 · vs PHI · Sun 9:30 AM · NFL Net

18.0

11.5 to 24.5

QB2
Not published yet. Start or sit

HOW SURE, WEEK 5

  • Projection 18.0
  • Floor 11.5
  • Ceiling 24.5

Not published yet.

Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentiles of our projection; the projection is the median. The ranking and Start or sit read the same numbers.

THE STAT LINE BEHIND IT

Standard 18.0Half PPR 18.0PPR 18.06-pt pass TD -Quarterbacks do not catch passes, so the formats agree.
CMP -ATT 29.9PASS YDS 241PASS TD 1.3INT 0.1RUSH 3.6 · 14RUSH TD 0.0

Std 18.0 · Half 18.0 · PPR 18.0. Source: Model · engine2-0.2.0.

OUR RECORD ON LAWRENCE, PROJECTED VS ACTUAL

  • Week 1: projected 19.1, range 12.6 to 25.2, scored 26.1
  • Week 2: projected 17.8, range 11.0 to 24.8, scored 6.2
  • Week 3: projected 16.7, range 10.5 to 23.0, scored 19.8
  • Week 4: projected 19.1, range 11.1 to 25.6, scored 13.1
  • Week 5: projected 18.0, range 11.5 to 24.5, scored 21.7
  • Week 7: bye
3 of 5 Inside the band −0.8 Mean error −11.6, Week 2 Biggest miss Not published yet. 2025

Grey bar: what we projected before kickoff, with the band. Tick: what he scored, from the official box score once it is published.

3 of 5 inside the band · mean error −0.8. Grey: our band. Green: what he scored.

REST OF SEASON

12 games left

  1. 5PHI18.0
  2. 6HOU-
  3. 7BYEno game
  4. 8IND-
  5. 9@BAL-
  6. 10@TEN-
  7. 11@NYG-
  8. 12TEN-
  9. 13@CHI-
  10. 14PIT-
  11. 15@HOU-
  12. 16@DAL-
  13. 17WAS-
  14. 18@IND-

This week's projection, then each week's opponent. Bye dashed.

RANK AT THE POSITION, BY RUN

9/8: QB4, 9/15: QB1, 9/20: QB4, 9/22: QB10, 9/24: QB10, 9/27: QB9, 9/29: QB3, 10/1: QB3, 10/4: QB3, 10/6: QB2, 10/8: QB2, 10/11: QB2

One point per day with a run on file: its newest, none after his kickoff. Lower is better.

AROUND HIM AT QB, WEEK 5

  1. QB1J.AllenBUF21.6
  2. QB2T.LawrenceJAX18.0
  3. QB3B.PurdySF18.0
  4. QB4T.ShoughNO17.7
  5. QB5J.BurrowCIN17.6
Full QB rankings

CONTEXT

DEPTH CHART
QB1 · behind him Q.Ewers
TEAM
Jaguars · rating +0.7, 14th
LAST WEEK
at CIN · 13.1 pts

Week 5 · published Sun Oct 11 · 9:27 AM ET · run 2026-05-inactives-686d1ad7 · scored weekly against the official box score