HOU

AFC SOUTH · T-3RD

Houston Texans

0-4 · home 0-3 · away 0-1 · division 0-1

0-4 · home 0-3 · away 0-1

NEXT · WEEK 6 at JAX Jaguars Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET · NFL Net Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM · NFL Net HOU 40% by 4, JAX Open →

OUR RATING +2.2 11th of 32 · points better than an average team on a neutral field 11th of 32

PROJECTED WINS PROJ WINS - Not published yet.

PLAYOFFS - Not published yet.

WINS VS EXPECTATION WINS VS EXPECTED −2.0 0-4 where our numbers expected 2.0 wins. Positive is running hot; it tends to come back. 0-4, expected 2.0

OUR RATING, WEEK BY WEEK

Week	Rating
Preseason	+2.2
After week 1	+2.2
After week 2	+1.9
After week 3	+2.1
After week 4	+2.2

Points better than an average team on a neutral field. The preseason prior comes from last season and the offseason; the line starts moving after Week 1.

Points better than average, neutral field. Moves after each week.

PLAYOFF ODDS, WEEK BY WEEK

Not published yet.

SCHEDULE

Preseason games are never forecast

P2 vs LAC Chargers Thu Aug 13 not forecast L 7-27 P3 vs LV Raiders Thu Aug 20 not forecast L 20-22 P4 at CAR Panthers Fri Aug 28 not forecast L 13-16 1 vs BUF Bills Sun Sep 13 HOU 45% · by 1, BUF L 31-36 Hit 2 vs CIN Bengals Sun Sep 20 HOU 53% · by 1 L 6-20 Miss 3 at IND Colts Sun Sep 27 HOU 50% · even L 17-19 Miss 4 vs DAL Cowboys Sun Oct 4 HOU 48% · by 1, DAL L 30-34 Hit 5 at TEN Titans Sun Oct 11 HOU 52% · by 1 W 26-3 Hit 6 at JAX Jaguars Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 HOU 40% · by 4, JAX · Next → 7 vs NYG Giants Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 HOU 57% · by 3 ·

9 at LAC Chargers Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 HOU 53% · by 1 · 10 at CLE Browns Sun Nov 15 · 1:00 HOU 53% · by 1 · 11 vs IND Colts Thu Nov 19 · 8:15 HOU 60% · by 4 · 12 vs BAL Ravens Sun Nov 29 · 1:00 HOU 44% · by 2, BAL · 13 at PIT Steelers Sun Dec 6 · 8:20 HOU 49% · even · 14 at WAS Commanders Sun Dec 13 · 1:00 HOU 40% · by 2, WAS · 15 vs JAX Jaguars Sun Dec 20 · 1:00 HOU 53% · by 1 · 16 at PHI Eagles Thu Dec 24 · 8:15 HOU 40% · by 3, PHI · 17 at GB Packers Mon Jan 4 · 8:15 HOU 43% · by 3, GB · 18 vs TEN Titans Sun Jan 10 · 1:00 HOU 65% · by 7 ·

SCHEDULE

P2 vs LAC Chargers Thu Aug 13 not forecast L 7-27 P3 vs LV Raiders Thu Aug 20 not forecast L 20-22 P4 at CAR Panthers Fri Aug 28 not forecast L 13-16 1 vs BUF Bills Sun Sep 13 HOU 45% L 31-36 Hit 2 vs CIN Bengals Sun Sep 20 HOU 53% L 6-20 Miss 3 at IND Colts Sun Sep 27 HOU 50% L 17-19 Miss 4 vs DAL Cowboys Sun Oct 4 HOU 48% L 30-34 Hit 5 at TEN Titans Sun Oct 11 HOU 52% W 26-3 Hit 6 at JAX Jaguars Sun 9:30 AM HOU 40% · 7 vs NYG Giants Sun Oct 25 HOU 57% ·

9 at LAC Chargers Sun Nov 8 HOU 53% · 10 at CLE Browns Sun Nov 15 HOU 53% · 11 vs IND Colts Thu Nov 19 HOU 60% · 12 vs BAL Ravens Sun Nov 29 HOU 44% · 13 at PIT Steelers Sun Dec 6 HOU 49% · 14 at WAS Commanders Sun Dec 13 HOU 40% · 15 vs JAX Jaguars Sun Dec 20 HOU 53% · 16 at PHI Eagles Thu Dec 24 HOU 40% · 17 at GB Packers Mon Jan 4 HOU 43% · 18 vs TEN Titans Sun Jan 10 HOU 65% ·

SEASON, IF WE RAN IT 100 TIMES

Not published yet.

REMAINING SCHEDULE, HOW HARD

REMAINING SCHEDULE · 22ND HARDEST

22nd hardest of 32 avg opponent rating −0.5

6 JAX +0.7 · 40% 40%

7 NYG −4.6 · 57% 57%

9 LAC +0.2 · 53% 53%

10 CLE −4.2 · 53% 53%

11 IND −0.6 · 60% 60%

12 BAL +6.0 · 44% 44%

13 PIT 0.0 · 49% 49%

14 WAS −3.4 · 40% 40%

15 JAX +0.7 · 53% 53%

16 PHI +2.9 · 40% 40%

17 GB +2.6 · 43% 43%

18 TEN −6.5 · 65% 65%

Each tile: week, opponent, their rating, our number for HOU. Red border: games we currently lean against. Filled: 65% or better.

Week, opponent, our number for HOU. Red border: we lean against. Filled: 65% or better.

AFC SOUTH

JAX Jaguars 3-1 +0.7 - 3-1 · +0.7 IND Colts 2-2 −0.6 - 2-2 · −0.6 HOU Texans 0-4 +2.2 - 0-4 · +2.2 TEN Titans 0-4 −6.5 - 0-4 · −6.5 Whole conference →

INJURIES, AND WHAT THEY COST US

Tank Dell WR WR OUT OUT

M.J. Stewart S S Q · knee Q

Braden Smith T T Q · foot Q

Ed Ingram G G Q · illness Q

Blake Fisher T T Q · illness Q

Aireontae Ersery T T Q · illness Q

Kayden McDonald DT DT Q · ankle Q

Impact, the rating change with that player out, is not published yet.

KEY PLAYERS, WEEK 5 PROJECTIONS

KEY PLAYERS, WEEK 5

C.Stroud QB 16.2 QB13

D.Montgomery RB 7.7 RB23

N.Collins WR 10.3 WR11

X.Hutchinson WR 5.1 WR54

D.Schultz TE 6.6 TE16

Depth chart, 55 on the roster →

SEASON SO FAR

Points for / against per game 21.0 / 27.2

Point diff per game −6.2

Home · Away · Division 0-3 · 0-1 · 0-1

Strength of schedule, remaining 22nd

Week 5 · published Sun Oct 11 · 5:36 PM ET · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6

Week 5 · published Sun Oct 11 · run 2026-05-refresh-a83858b6